Inventory of available homes to purchase in St. Paul remains low this spring — it’s still a seller’s market at most price points. Minnesota’s busiest season seemed to have a false start late January when the polar vortex and piles of new snow slowed a flurry of new-year activity. It’s starting to pick up but competition among home buyers remains high as new listings lag in comparison to demand.

Warming weather along with lower interest rates may be motivating home buyers to get out and shop. What are they seeing so far? I dug through local MLS data to get a snapshot of activity, search for trends and cross-check stories from the field — this post summarizes my recent findings.

Rising Median Sale Prices

Sale prices in St. Paul continue to steadily rise, in some neighborhoods more than others. Thomas-Dale (Frogtown) and St. Anthony Park experienced the greatest increases in the past year with 16.3% and 15%, respectively. Payne-Phalen and the Greater East Side saw nearly 10% hikes while North End, St. Paul’s most affordable pocket, experienced the least drastic increase at +2%.

Summit-University was the outlier showing an unexpected decrease in single-family homes (-16%). The neighborhood, bordered by Downtown and Lexington on its east-west ends, and University and Summit Avenues to the north and south, contains wide variety of housing options. Single-family homes range from modest and affordable to Ramsey Hill mansions. It also has one of the highest concentrations of condos in the city, especially in and around the Historic Hill District. Unlike the overall single-family home prices, condo values in the neighborhood have been on the rise with the median price for all types and sizes going up 4.7% over the past 12 months.

Downtown single-family median values were non existent in the MLS which is not surprising. Its housing stock is comprised primarily of condos whose median price rose 7.6% from last March to $194,000 for all sizes and types.

Snapshot of St. Paul Homes for Sale | April 20, 2019

More Competition for Move-up Buyers

If you’re moving into a mid-to-upper bracket home in St. Paul you have competition. The available inventory of homes in the move-up market is slim, and the number of days on markets for these properties has dropped. In March 2018 the months supply of $600,000-699,000 was 4.8. That number dropped to 2.6 in March 2019, tipping the balance in favor of sellers (5-6 is balanced and favors neither.) Supplies dropped in the $700-900K ranges as well creating more competition for desirable homes at all price points under $1M.

The median number of days on market for mid-to-upper priced properties has also changed significantly in the past year. Homes in the $600-900K price range are selling much faster this spring than last. For example, the median number of days for $600-699K dropped from 74 in March 2018 to 20 in March 2019. Considering the corresponding decrease in supply, these numbers make sense. With fewer homes available, the good ones are going fast.

St. Paul vs. Minneapolis

Lately I’ve met more and more buyers crossing the river in search of homes. Minneapolitans looking to settle in St. Paul are becoming a thing. They tell a similar story of wanting urban amenities at a more affordable price and feel their chosen Minneapolis neighborhoods are financially out of reach. These city dwellers share an appreciation of St. Paul’s charm and walkability where they can easily access restaurants, cafes, grocery and transportation, at a more affordable price.

Historically the median price in St. Paul has been lower than in Minneapolis but the gap between them appears to be growing. Shoppers may be sensing it and MLS data seems to support their claims. Sale prices for all home types have been increasing at a slightly faster rate in Minneapolis (check out the graph below.) St. Paul’s March 2019 median was 215,000 compared to 267,000 in Minneapolis — a slightly wider spread than the respective $125,000 and $150,000 median prices of 2009.

Spring Market Inventory

If you’re looking to buy this year, don’t let the state of low inventory deter you. Spring may still be the best time to home shop in Minnesota as the number of new listings continues to grow offering more choices to buyers. Last year that number peaked in May with 561 new listings in St. Paul (for all home types). This March we saw 353 new listings, inching up from the low of 134 in December 2018. I’m confident market history will repeat itself when more homes enter the market in the next couple of months. As they do, be prepared mentally and financially to make your move.

Heidi Swanson is a Realtor® based in St. Paul, Minnesota. She writes a blog to share information on variety of topics including buying and selling, market conditions, homeownership trends, local events and more. Reach her at heidi@lyndenrealty.com or 651-503-1540.